The coming slate wars in the next wave of the march towards singularity. The future is coming… its modern, its clean, its fast and in motion and we almost don’t see it past the latest gadget. We’ve gotten past the latest feature and, frequently, it’s about the more transcendental experience of the gadget then any one feature. In the world of futurists and transhumanists, talk frequently centers around the future far off and emerging technology leading up to it, trends or the singularity. I’d like to focus on the midterm, in the waves of change that come periodically when things shift entirely. With each new innovation or each new gadget the pressure for society to change on one issue or the other technologically is cranked up. Take the cell phone that was originally for the wealthy, then the well off and then a few more could afford it, and a few more, and a few more until one day we wake up and everyone has one and beepers are dead.
It’s to the point now that many people don’t even have land lines. Some of our younger generation don’t even know what a land line is, which might even be some of you.
There are any number of other examples: from VCR tapes to DVD’s or CRT displays to flat screens etc. Each innovation builds until ubiquity.
This sudden change when we wake up and realize that something is now common place is where I want to focus on. That is to say, the waves of change towards ubiquity of a given technology and in the long term one more step toward singularity. In this case I want to specifically focus on one of the most current changes that is about to happen and we can watch and enjoy it while its happening now.
Right this minute a new wave is about to set in and a new kind of computing will be ubiquitous, and by the way side, sometime post 2015, I’m willing to bet that you will find laptops and desktops as mostly a thing of the past. We are at the cusp of change that has been building one innovation at a time.
Do you have an iPad? Do you know someone who has an iPad? I bet you do… For its form factor it is the best example of industrial design ever. This form factor has been around a long time but none were quite so elegant as the iPad, either too thick, to heavy, poor battery life, the user interface was terrible or any number of other excuses, but a few more had them and a few more and a few more and now most people have one or know someone with one. But can the iPad replace a more traditional form factor? Could YOUR main computer be an iPad or ‘slate’ computer?
If you ask a Mac power user you tend to get reasons for lack of adoption like oh, I can’t run x on it or it can’t do y. After talking to lots of people it comes down to the fact that the iPad and extensible iOS is designed as a consumption device, it’s great for watching video but have you ever typed a 15 page paper on it?
Or tried to run the latest software design suite? The iPad doesn’t exactly live up to the bar of pushing everything completely forward. This isn’t a cut to Apple as the iPad does its job well and does it better than anyone else but it’s not quite enough to be ubiquitous. It certainly has helped gain momentum as it’s mastered the form factor.
Let’s look at a few bits of data regarding momentum… from cell phones to smart phones device adoption has quickened, take stats from 2009 which showed any given market for adoption increased by 10% over the previous year and over all adoption was generally over 50% for smart phones. Do you know many people that don’t have smart phones in the western world? If you look at something more connected with say the iPad, internet usage will pass desktop internet connections by 2014. Most searches are now done via a mobile device…
Americans spend on average 2.7 hours a day socializing on a mobile device. That’s twice the time spent eating and 1/3 the time spend sleeping. Clearly we are increasingly mobile and increasingly connected.
The statistics point towards exponential growth in connectivity and internet usage and this along with other factors really is driving the current change. Which could imply strongly the desire to move towards a more connected form factor that can be carried all the time like say an iPad?
With the incredible impact of the iPad design and numerous other pressures a number of companies are under increasing pressure to adapt and bring to market something smaller, faster and all around better, to be able to compete against the iPad as their older products are increasingly unimportant. But these new devices will need to crank it up to compete in a market dominated by the iPad. This in particular is the traditional Windows based computers and Microsoft OEM partners (HP, IBM, Dell, Sony etc) that will need to really improve what they deliver. I would argue that what is needed is the form factor of the iPad with the power of a desktop. If everyone starts only using iPad’s then these companies are pretty much out in the dark. And this has been going on for a number of years. Fortunately for consumers these companies have been working diligently to come up with something that really can bring something to market that can go up against the iPad. What they have come up with I argue is no iPad killer but is a desktop and laptop killer…
Recently Microsoft has announced Windows 8. Microsoft spent years developing the formerly known as Metro aesthetic as well as rewriting the core OS from the ground up. Amazingly enough Windows 8 is roughly twice as fast in half the memory as Windows 7 but more importantly Windows 8 is touch centric like say, an iPad. These devices are more appropriately called slates. Further, Microsoft in their concern for industrial design to go head to head with the iPad, developed the ‘Surface’ slate that launch’s soon (www.surface.com). After reviewing the ‘Surface’ slate, I’m not convinced its an iPad killer but it is the death of laptops and desktop computers. I’ve been using a prototype for over a year. I have to say, as a slate, this all solid state, quad core, 64 bit machine is orders of magnitude more powerful than the iPad and as easy to use.
As I mentioned, it’s not an iPad killer per say but really it appears to me to be the opening salvo in what will play out for the hearts of the consumer with devices that will replace desktop and laptop computers. It’s not like Apple will sit still, they already have a patent in for a surface or slate like version of the iPad. One of the key features is a keyboard that is only magnetically connected and is as thin as the average laptop cover that allows the device to be great for content creation where the current iPad just is weak.
I’m not going to go and say that Microsoft or Apple will come out on top but as we see devices enter the market place from Android, Microsoft, Apple and any number of other third parties we will see more and more awesome devices that will make our laptops and desktops painful to use and they will fade away like the flip phone of the 90’s or the cassette tape from the 80’s etc.
So what will 2015 look like?
Let’s take a peek at Gerry a professional of some kind in this post PC (laptop and desktop) era…
[FADE IN: GERRY TAKES A BUS]
Gerry is enjoying the crisp morning air as he walks to the bus stop. He takes out his mini slate and taps the bus stop sign post. He looks at the screen of his handheld device.
DEVICE: The 72 bus will arrive in 1 minute
DEVICE : Notification: Your contact George is on the next bus (72 Express), which arrives in 6 minutes. [CUT TO BUS INTERIOR:]
George is listening to an audio book while riding on the bus.
DEVICE: Notification: Your contact Gerry is getting on this bus at the next stop.
George pauses the audio book. He then removes his headphones and then moves to a seat which has a free seat next to it. The bus comes to a stop and Gerry is seen by George.
GEORGE; “Hey.”
GERRY, “Hello. Thanks for saving me a seat.”
[FADE OUT: FADE IN: SIDEWALK VIEW OF STREET WITH TRAFFIC AND BUS STOP]
The 72 Express pulls up to the stop. The bus door opens and people begin to exit. Gerry steps down while talking to George. George is following behind Gerry.
GERRY, “It was good to run in to you.”
GEORGE, “Yeah. I’ll see you at happy hour on Friday!”
Gerry puts a headset device into his ear. He starts walking toward his work. Enjoying his walk he is distracted as he approaches an intersection. DEVICE VOICE: Warning! A tram is coming through this intersection.
This causes Gerry to snap out of it and step back away from the curb. The tram then passes narrowly by.
After which he proceeds to cross the street and enter the building on the opposite side. The lobby of the building is old marble with many large paintings decorating the interior. As he looks around, some of the famous paintings transition in to other works of art.
GERRY, “What’s my schedule for today?” as if to no one.
DEVICE VOICE, “You have eight meetings today. At nine AM Discussion of next vertical approach.
At ten AM Let’s meet to talk about the launch. At ten thirty AM RFP discussion”
Gerry appears irritated and interrupts the device.
GERRY, “Display near me.”
The art nearest to the elevator door slides to the side of the screen that it really is, revealing his schedule. He walks up to the screen and touches the display sliding his daily schedule up and down a bit.
GERRY, “Thanks, Done.”
The screen slides back to show the art. The elevator dings and the door slides open. John enters the elevator
[FADE OUT]
Walking into his office, where the doors recognizes him and unlocks. He sets his mini slate on a little raised square on his desk and his desk comes alive as the frosted glass panel lights up his desktop environment then a laser projected keyboard shows up on his glass desk and his silver blue neon mouse lights without wires or batteries.
[FADE OUT]
John comes in and they are talking about some project at work and John needs a copy of something on the screen. John holds his mini slate up to the panel on Gerry’s desk and Gerry flicks the content to it and the content shows up on John slate.
All so amazing right? Can this kind of technology be here by 2015? The best part is the technology is already here. I just got an engineering proof for a display that comes out next month from Planar called the Helium display (20 point capacitive touch, 27inch, 1080dp, HD cam, sound etc). Not any one feature is that amazing but having it all together in such a thin package and then the win8 slate prototype I got about a year ago has me living that story now in the [wire] stone experience center in Seattle. This kind of enabling technology is here now and with all of the manufactures competing for our attention the technology will only get more refined.
So three years to see laptops and desktops fade? Here are a few more statistics around slate adoption prior to 2012, in 2011 75% of all workers NOW have some level of mobility associated with their jobs. In 2010, 16.1 million tablets shipped but by 2015 that is expected to be 147.2 million (I think this is extremely conservative). 75% of workers have access to slates (or iPads) of some form now. What then in 2015?
And the iPad just came out in 2010? So is my estimate too conservative? I think not. The next wave of transformation in the slate is a symphony of combined technologies over a decade old just now smaller and the next technology that will fade away is the laptop and desktop (don’t worry they won’t’ be all gone but most people won’t have need of them), what I see emerging after that is a smaller form factor as the pressure is still increasing on a more consolidated form factor past the cell phone and tablet.
With technologies like glasses or other portable visual overlays I’d say that will likely be one of the next waves in the march towards computational ubiquity and Singularity.
(source(s): Mobile Marketing, ComScore, Momads, Apple Computer, Microsoft, Silicon Angle, Ryan Lane)
~David
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