A Way Forward: Surviving Climate Change

Climate change has been a topic much in the news for the last decade. Most of the coverage has centered on various theories which have discussed what the cause of the current climate change is. There has been much debate over the question: “Have we as humans been causing or accelerating the problem or is it simply part of a naturally occurring cycle?” Answering these questions is ultimately important to learn if we, as humans, need to adjust our behavior in the long term. These are not the questions we need to answer in the short term. In the short term, it is much more important to address how we will cope with the situations caused by climate change, regardless of cause.

Climate will change and this is inevitable. As it does, it could result in areas that were “breadbaskets” of food production becoming drought stricken and areas that were formerly uninhabitable may become livable. Low-lying areas near sea level could become inundated and simply disappear. Coastal cities could find that sea level is higher than some of the streets. We currently have neither geo-political structures nor internal infrastructures in place to deal with the consequences.

In this paper, I will attempt to identify several key areas which need to be addressed on the internal infrastructure side of this issue and some possible solutions. While the topics are treated separately, it is my firm belief that they should be regarded as parts of a greater whole. I will also point out possible long term economic reasons to pursue these actions. Much like the other great public works projects of the past, implementing these ideas will require a significant investment by our society. The question we must answer is: “Can we afford to not pursue these courses of action and, if not, how should we proceed?” It is my sincere hope that, if this paper accomplishes nothing else, it at least brings attention to the needs and begins the discussion of the possible solutions.

The first issue that I feel must be addressed is fresh water. Due to increasing population, fresh water availability will become an issue even without climate change. There is an ever increasing need for water for irrigation for food production; and climate change will likely result in this becoming even more of an issue as areas which were good for crop production may become drought stricken. We are already seeing signs of this becoming an issue in the southwestern United States. As far north as Oregon and as far east as west Texas, farmers are experiencing drought conditions and farms are unable to produce the crops they have historically produced. This is a significant problem but not one that is unable to be addressed.

To begin to address this issue we must examine the requirements of how much fresh water is needed. With an average of 70 gallons per person used for daily life, there is a need to be able to shift significant amounts of fresh water from areas where it is plentiful to areas where it is needed. The requirements for agriculture and industry mean even more water needing to be provided. All cultures of significance throughout history have recognized, as we do, that fresh water is essential for the continued existence of their culture. We currently have the technology required to address this problem. We can use desalinization to produce fresh water directly from sea water; and with some 5000+ miles of coastline just in the continental United States, we have more than enough access to sea water.

Desalinization of sea water solves the supply issue but leads to the need for an infrastructure to move the newly produced fresh water from the nearest production center to where it is needed for use. This can be achieved by a combination of Roman style aqueduct systems, tunnels and pipelines. With proper storage facilities in place, the water supply issue could become a non-issue.

Both the production centers and the transmission storage systems must be maintained after being built and these are jobs that cannot be exported. This helps the overall economy. Some of these systems would require significant electrical power however, which our current systems are not up to handling.

This brings me to the next major issue which needs to be addressed going forward. Electrical power is an ever more important part of modern society. Almost our entire modern world requires electricity in some form. From communications to entertainment to navigation to travel, modern life is using ever increasing amounts of electricity and the fresh water solutions discussed above would be an additional load on the production and transmission systems. We need the ability to transmit electricity from anywhere it is produced to anywhere it is needed in the country. The occurrence of so-called “super-storms” has regularly resulted in widespread power outages in recent years. When the power goes out our modern society cannot function and it can even result in loss of life.

This means that our power grid is extremely important and needs to feature redundancy and be “hardened” to be able to resist damage from disaster. Redundancy is simply a matter of adding more transmission lines and hardening can be achieved by moving main transmission lines underground in areas not crossed by a fault line. Areas with seismic fault lines will require systems which can absorb the ground motion and still function. This could be achieved by simply using above ground cables or potentially wireless microwave transmission systems based in stable areas bordering the fault.

With the increasing adoption of electronic devices and technologies such as electric vehicles, the need for more electricity generation capability will only continue to increase and this means that we need to invest in this area. It makes sense to try and make as much of this increased production capability as possible be based on long term sustainable technology. It is, however, unrealistic to believe that we can replace all non-renewable options and still meet the consumer demand in the short term.

This means that going forward we will need to pursue a mix of current non-sustainable options such as coal, natural gas and nuclear alongside more long-term sustainable options such as solar, wind and non-dam based hydroelectric generation.

Some areas are naturally more suited to some of these options than others and each has its shortcomings. This fact points to the need for the electric transmission grid to be a nationwide system and much like the water issue discussed above the need to be able to move the electricity from wherever it is being produced to wherever it is needed. The two systems could be run together and follow similar routes which would allow for pumping   stations and the like that would be required for the water distribution system to be easily powered. Again, the systems will need to be maintained once built and like the water system these jobs cannot be exported overseas. This makes sense economically.

Due to the non-even distribution of population, the idea of using large centralized systems for the production of electricity may need to be re-examined. It makes more sense to utilize a networked, more decentralized, approach to generating power; as this allows for local scalability and increased redundancy in the system as a whole. The same approach may also be appropriate for the fresh water system. By basing larger production facilities near larger population centers wherever possible, the distance required for transmission under normal operation can be minimized. This also helps keep any jobs created distributed near each local area which makes the idea more acceptable to local populations. People are more likely to support national projects of this nature if they see benefit to their local area economically.

The idea of nationwide transmission systems also applies to the movement of both goods and people. Current methods of accomplishing much of this process are very inefficient. Large scale movement of goods is primarily done by means of rail, air or truck. All of these systems are needed and the only real consideration is how can we best utilize them?

We need to invest in methods to reduce the environmental impact and increase the efficiency with which they operate. We currently have a fairly significant rail and road system in place but we need to focus more on maintaining and upgrading it.   Following the current interstate rail and highway systems could provide the beginnings of the routing for the national electric and water systems discussed above. Areas with larger populations will naturally require more transportation infrastructure to be in place and the same is true for both water and electricity. Again this suggests that the systems could be run alongside one another. These transportation systems also need to be maintained and this means more jobs in each locality which again cannot be exported. Such jobs provide a permanent effect on local economies both large and small.

Air travel is by far the fastest method we have currently for the movement of goods or people. We could potentially use more efficient designs for aerial vehicles. Combining lighter than air technology with lifting structure based technology could result in decreased fuel requirements per pound of payload, for instance. Utilizing solar power generation technology on prop based aircraft could result in lowered fuel requirements as well. Combining both approaches could result in even more efficient vehicle designs. With fuel costs being one of the largest factors influencing air transportation expense rates, both for goods and people, this could result in more accessible air transportation options for even greater numbers of businesses and individuals.

There is also a significant amount of transportation which takes place on water in the United States. The movement of both goods and people by water is an important aspect of our transportation systems. Here again is an area where combining solar and traditional wind power alongside current fuel based propulsion can provide for greater efficiency by reducing the fuel consumption requirements of the vehicles for any given payload. Again, this has the effect of lowered operating costs and therefore the potential to result in lower transportation costs and increased access for businesses and individuals.

Throughout all this discussion it should be noted that at no point has there been any mention of eliminating fuel use. The discussion has focused on the increase of efficient usage of fuel. Fuel will continue to be an important and necessary component of modern society for the foreseeable future.

Fuel usage and the reasons for its continued necessity are the next topic I wish to address as this subject, and that of electric power requirements, are very much interrelated. For reasons which I will attempt to make clear, I believe that fuel will continue to be an important part of transportation well into the future. This and the fact that in particular “fossil” fuels are a limited resource, I believe, implies that we should reserve “fossil” fuels primarily for use in transportation and not for large scale generation of electricity. The limited amount of space available for crop cultivation means there is an upper limit to the amount of “bio-fuels” that we can produce as well. We still have to feed ourselves after all. There is no real way out of the fact that, from whatever source, fuel is a limited commodity.

Fuel has a much higher energy density than any, currently accepted as safe, battery technology. Technological advancement may change this at some future point but at this point this is the case. This means that for any given amount of space and weight say as in a car’s gas tank, there is no way to replace that tank of fuel with a battery that will hold enough power to provide an equivalent range of travel. Until there is a major development in battery technology, fuel use must continue to be part of our transportation infrastructure.

The limited nature of fuel itself means we should prioritize the use of this resource where it is needed most. We need to continue to pursue alternative sources of “bio-fuels”; alcohol based and possibly oil based as well. Fuel cell technologies are another area that needs continued development.

Currently, we can probably get the best results by increasing our use of battery/generator based or “hybrid” technologies as they are commonly known. This technology is applicable both to long range large scale transportation and shorter range personal transportation.

All these systems individually require robust control systems and the ability to transmit control signals over long distances. If the systems are interconnected then this issue becomes even more important. This combined with the fact that reliable, long range rapid communication is essential to modern life brings me to the final area I would like to examine here.

A nationwide communications system is critical to maintaining many aspects of modern life in the United States. From the World Wide Web infrastructure to the phone system, we have made rapid long range communication an essential part of our everyday lives. All the systems described above either require or at least can benefit from a nationwide robust communication system. Transportation systems can at least partially actively monitor themselves for needed maintenance and the same is true for the water and electric systems. The water and electric systems would additionally require control systems for routing the supply to where it is needed to meet demand.

To be practically implemented, systems of this nature will require both wired and wireless technology. In most cases, these technologies can be utilized cooperatively in such a way that there is redundancy both within each system individually and between the systems themselves. This creates a very robust network system that gives the greatest ability to withstand disaster and continue to function.

If the water, electric, transportation and communication systems were all interrelated, it would make sense to consider them all to be parts of an even larger system. Extending the above described system to all our current locations for roadways would enable the extension of broadband communications, electricity, fresh water and transportation to all locations people currently inhabit. This is no small undertaking but much of the beginnings of such a system are already in place. What has been lacking is a national perspective and the treatment of these systems as parts of a coherent whole. Construction of the system described here would require a significant investment of time and resources but our country would be stronger as a result. The jobs created are such that they will continue to need to be performed on an ongoing basis and in all areas of the country. The ability to move fresh water makes crops easier to produce and helps to ensure the health and well-being of our citizens.

The electric and communication grids ensure modern life is accessible to as many of those citizens as possible. It is my hope that this paper will serve to change the tone of the national discussion from one of placing blame to one of solving the practical issues.

~PratoriateMonk

* image used from http://www.wallpapersgo.com/20-stunning-awesome-wallpapers/ (12/7/2012)